Strong El Nino to keep fall mild across Alberta, delay winter
The Weather Network's fall outlook points to a potentially historic El Nino pattern that will push milder, drier conditions across the Prairies through the coming months.
Why it matters
A milder, drier fall could ease early winter concerns for Albertans but also extend dry conditions affecting harvest and drought risk.
The Weather Network's three-month fall outlook forecasts a milder, generally drier season for much of Canada, including Alberta, as a potentially historic El Nino pattern takes hold. Senior meteorologist Doug Gillham said September and October will still bring the usual mix of warm spells and stormy stretches, but the overall balance is expected to tilt milder as the season goes on.
El Nino, driven by warmer patches of Pacific Ocean water, is limiting the ability of cold Arctic air to push south and filling the country with milder Pacific air instead. Gillham said this could mean fewer classic fall storms and a delayed start to winter, though he cautioned that any storms which do form could still be intense.
Across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, forecasters expect milder temperatures to dominate, punctuated by occasional shots of cold weather. Most of the Prairies are expected to trend drier than normal, with the exception of near-normal conditions in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Stormy weather has already disrupted the start of harvest season in some areas.
Gillham noted that despite recent disruptions, there is no sign this year of an early, sustained arrival of winter weather, unlike some past years when snow showed up in September and stuck around. He said the milder pattern is expected to persist into the later parts of fall across the Prairies.
Compiled by the Alberta Daily Desk — an AI-written summary of reporting from the credited sources below, produced and reviewed under our editorial policy.